PARIS — Talking with Vladimir Putin? While highly controversial, the question has resurfaced among European leaders as a potentially unavoidable move. Eager to claim their place in a geopolitical conversation from which Washington and Moscow have previously excluded them, Europeans are proceeding with extreme caution, fully aware of the treacherous political terrain.
The timing of this diplomatic shift is crucial. Three major international summits are about to take place back-to-back:
- The G7 Summit: In Evian, France, from June 15 to 17.
- The European Council Meeting: In Brussels on June 18 and 19.
- The NATO Summit: In Ankara, Turkey, on July 7 and 8.
The war in Ukraine has now lasted, in its most devastating phase, for nearly four and a half years—surpassing the duration of World War I. While the Russian economy has finally begun to falter under pressure, Kyiv has not only held off Russian advances but has leveraged advanced technological prowess to inflict massive losses and strike deep inside Russian territory.
A Temporary Diplomatic Advantage
European analysts note that this strategic advantage may only be temporary, given Russia’s historical capacity for military resilience and regeneration. However, European leaders want to leverage this exact momentum diplomatically, especially as the Trump administration remains deeply preoccupied with another theater of war in the Middle East.
“Ukraine is now in a stronger position politically, militarily, and economically than at any point during the war of aggression,” stated Finnish President Alexander Stubb during a recent summit of Nordic and Baltic countries. Notably, Europe now funds almost the entirety of the financial and military support keeping Kyiv afloat.
A ‘Phase of Reorientation’ on Wall Street and Washington
In a surprising twist, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged this moment of Russian vulnerability during a Senate committee hearing in Washington. This marked a significant contrast to the Trump administration’s usual public rhetoric regarding Russia’s strength and Ukraine’s weakness.
Rubio testified that there is now a broad, bipartisan consensus on one major point: the invasion of Ukraine has become a “strategic disaster” for the Russian Federation.
According to Rubio, not only has Moscow completely failed to achieve its initial objectives, but Russian forces “may not even be able to militarily ever achieve the objectives they’re demanding now in negotiations.” These aggressive demands primarily concern Russian sovereignty over Crimea and four eastern Ukrainian oblasts.
With the US distracted and Russia facing a strategic bottleneck, Europe is positioning itself to lead the next phase of potential peace talks.
